US Open
Last Week:
No output from me last week, at what was a very missable Safeway Open, and one which I paid only passing attention to. Prior to that we had the Tour Championship where Dustin Johnson gained reward for his superb play of the last month by waltzing away with the $15 million loot. From a personal perspective, Xander Schauffele did more than enough to land the Top 72 hole score at an advised price of 12/1, to make it another profitable week. I do wonder if the FedEx and the PGA Tour will continue to run with the current handicap format for the season finale. Limited sample size so far, but it just hasn’t offered the excitement of say Bill Haas win, or that of McIlroy in 2016. Personally, I don’t like it. Xander threatened to make life uncomfortable for DJ at a couple of stages during that Monday finish, but never quite got close enough to rattle him. Justin Thomas had threatened the first round lead early on Friday, but unfortunately we ultimately had to settle for the place money there.
Introduction:
What a week we have in store! All reports are that this week’s test is going to be one of the toughest seen in many a year. It comes to us from the famed Winged Foot Golf Club, not far from New York City. A near 7500 yard Par 70, this is long, very long. Typically when faced with such length, you will automatically think big hitters. I’m not so sure. With rough set to 5 inches deep at its thickest, and that coming not far off narrow fairways, players will need more to their game than just distance here. With very little in the way of rain in the area the past few weeks, it promises to be what the US Open should be, firm and fast. If finding the fairways will be tough, that is only the beginning of the trouble for the 156 starters here. The greens at Winged Foot will certainly sort the wheat from the chaff. Only the most accurate of approaches will hold these extremely undulating greens, with collection spots aplenty awaiting those just a little bit off with their irons and wedges. That wedge play will be a key factor here, as getting up and down from inside 100 yards will be crucial to any potential winners card. A strong mind will also be a must, as bogeys are a certainty, double bogeys likely to all but a few. One must keep the head, and remember that Level Par on Sunday will in all likelihood be good enough to lift the trophy. I don’t quite see the winning score being as high as the +5 which Geoff Ogilvy was successful on here in 2006, but it likely won’t be far off it.
Players of Interest:
Plenty!! With a test such as the players face this week, I do typically err towards the head of the market. The tougher the examination, the more likely the gulf in class between certain players is likely to be exposed. There are valid cases to be made for many that I won’t be backing, but as ever price has dictated who ultimately makes the final team sheet.
I don’t think anyone can argue that Dustin Johnson is the correct favourite, and most likely winner. From the US PGA onwards he has been in serene form, and regardless of my misgivings about the format, he was the deserving winner of the FedEx Cup. In those 4 tournaments in that time span, for all his perceived dominance, only once did he shoot the week’s best score. Taking Tiger Woods out of the conversation, these runs do all come to an end at some stage, and I don’t see there being any juice left in the price of the market leader. True he has been a regular on US Open leaderboards nearly every year since 2014, but again I feel that is factored into his price. What I feel is a negative that the market hasn’t accounted for, is that a solitary major for one of DJs’ talent certainly represents underachieving. And the pressure is mounting to notch another. He should have won this event in 2018 after a hot start, but folded in the face of some very difficult conditions, and the recent US PGA is another he will feel he could have closed out. All told, at 8/1, he can win without me.
Another with crystal clear claims is Jon Rahm. In excellent form, straighter than most of the games bigger hitters, he will be in a confident mood arriving here. It’s just that mood of his that I’m worried about. He has certainly made massive strides in controlling his temperament, and I do love to see a real will to win, but Winged Foot for his first
Major win just might be a step too far at the moment. More than good enough to lift the trophy come Sunday, but 10/1 just doesn’t appeal to me at all here.
14/1 Justin Thomas did appeal, and still does to some extent. If it was 16/1 to 9 or 10 places, I likely would have played him. There were flashes of the brilliance at East Lake that you normally see from JT before he strikes gold. The flat stick held him back there, and if more proficient on the greens here, he will rightly fancy his chances. As good as he clearly is, I do wonder if he has the course management skills for Winged Foot. He still makes some questionable decisions, and poor decisions here will cost you more than anywhere else. With that worry in mind, the 14/1 has been let slide.
It would be very easy to make a case for the above 3, and there are obviously very many positives to their chances, but as I am not recommending backing them I would rather state the reasons why not. Similar comments apply to Rory McIlroy, although he was certainly easier to dismiss. Many will have ‘Nappy Factor’ as a reason for weighing in with the new father here, but to me it is a detriment to Rory’s chances of success. I doubt he will have done very much at all in the way of practise since East Lake, and given the difficulty of the week ahead, any rust will be painfully exposed. He is also, in my opinion, not as consistently good on tougher layouts. Rory likes to swagger down the fairways, off the back of birdie barrages. He will have to fight this week, and I’m just not sure his heart is in it at the moment.
Ever since seeing a flyover preview of this week’s venue a couple of weeks back, one player has been very much to the fore of my thought process. PATRICK REED. Quite simply there is nothing not to like about the chances of the man they love to hate here, and at 40/1 I think he is an excellent bet. Pre Lockdown I viewed him as one of the more likely winners of the Masters in April, such was the form he was showing, in particular his skill set around the greens which are perfect for Augusta. The upturned, undulating greens of Winged Foot bear quite the resemblance to the home of what should have been the year’s first major, and I expect to be in his element here. Imagination and touch will be key factors, and I don’t have anyone currently ahead of Reed on this front. He again led the Scrambling statistics on his last outing at East Lake, but what offers me even more encouragement is that he also led in Driving Accuracy. That is an area our man can sometimes be let down in, and though everyone will be missing fairways here, the aim has to be to limit any waywardness. A similar display of the tee here, and I feel it will take a very good performance to keep him out of the winners enclosure. Shots will be squandered willy nilly around the greens, but Reed will salvage lost causes on more occasions than not. Chips outs, or small advancements up the fairways will be part and parcel of the week ahead. Getting up and down from that 50-75 yard range is where Reed really comes into his own. Readers with me since the start of the year will recall Reed doing us a favour in that WGC, a venue which also featured Poa Annua greens. Certainly not every player’s cup of tea, but host to two of Reeds wins now.
He is his own biggest fan, but he backs up the talk with his displays in the games biggest events. Winner of The Masters, 2 WGC’s, 2 FedEx Cup playoff events, and a thorn in European sides in Ryder Cups, Reed simply loves the big occasion. He will treat this week as a challenge, and won’t be throwing the toys out of the pram when things inevitably get tough. His fourth place at a tough Shinnecock Hills two years ago backs this up, and as I have alluded to before I feel it is just the lack of love Joe Public has for him that sees him chalked up at the prices he is for these events. Shooting the 7th best score at East Lake, he finished up with a 65 and will have absolutely purring ahead of duty here. I really like his chances this week.
Once again I debated long and hard about the inclusion of XANDER SHAUFFELE. Once more I view the 16/1 on offer as worthy of inclusion. I absolutely love the attitude of the Californian, and his up and down from distance on the 14th on Payday at East Lake was an example of the composure that will be demanded this week. Not out of the top 25 in his last 8 starts, there are certain venues where I feel Xander will always be a factor. East Lake is obviously one, and I view Winged Foot as somewhere where he will also excel. As is the case with Reed, Schauffele is a player who has continuously performed to his best on the biggest stages. 5 of his last 8 major appearances have
produced top 10 finishes, and indeed his 3 US Open ventures have resulted in finishing positions of 5th/6th/3rd. Clearly he relishes the test that the National championship presents, and with this week potentially being the toughest of all, I expect this cream to rise firmly to the top. He lies second on Tour for scrambling, and if he putts as well as he did two weeks ago, I cannot see him being far away. There are a few big names, including Rahm who are awaiting their first major, but I see Schauffele as the best equipped on any Major maiden to land a big one. DJ may have got all the plaudits for landing the Tour Championship, but as those who followed me in on the X Man won’t forget, it was our man who shot the week’s best score. That won’t be lost on him, and his confidence will be sky high coming here. It is one event where I would never expect a player to ‘find something’ and coming here at the top of your game is a big plus.
There are so many others with decent claims, and it wouldn’t be any surprise to see Daniel Berger, Patrick Cantlay,Collin Morikawa or Webb Simpson be victorious here. It’s just I prefer others at the prices. Once again, and even more so here, I have no time for the claims or price on offer of Bryson DeChambeau. He could really unravel in my opinion.
I had Tommy Fleetwood very much on my radar, as this is a test which should really suit him. Trouble is he showed his hand a bit too much in Portugal on Sunday gone, and from looking like getting 50/1 to extended places we are now faced with just 35/1. Reluctantly left alone.
I think I could count on one hand the number of times I have backed ADAM SCOTT over the years, and as recently as three weeks ago was very dismissive of his chances. But things change quickly in the world of golf, and quicker in the mind of those betting on it!! The Australian was excellent for 68 holes of the BMW Championship, only for a final four collapse to result in him plummeting through the feld. I certainly wasn’t complaining as it allowed Cameron Smith to steal the Top Oz slot, but it was Scott who very much caught the eye at Olympia Fields. Maybe the perfect venue to warm up for Winged Foot as Scott showed all the patience and course management there, that will
be required in spades here. Though much of the head of the OWGR and this week’s market are filled by what could be termed ‘younger’ players, I do feel experience will be vital here. Scott is a Major winner who has been through it all. I don’t expect him to become unravelled at any early hiccups, and this week will be all about playing the long game. The reason I felt compelled to take Scott on that week was I didn’t feel he had enough match practise under his belt after only 8 rounds played since the resumption. Those 72 holes at Olympia though will be worth their weight in gold in that respect, and to my eye at least, he showed more than enough there to suggest he is ready to be involved at the business end. Particularly pleasing has been his play around the green, and it can’t be emphasized enough just how important that will be over the coming 4 days. I can see him just hanging around over the first 54 holes, doing very little wrong, and if the putter has a going day on Sunday we could be in business. As much as the head of the market is very strong, I wouldn’t view there as being more than 25 realistic challengers for this title. 40/1 with 9 places appeals too much to ignore. His last 6 US Open appearances have seen 3 top 10s, and on a layout which will resemble many on which he was brought up on back home, I quite like his chances of notching another. Australians filled 3 of the top 20 places here in 2006, and an on song Scott may emulate compatriot Geoff Ogilvy this time around.
It would hurt if this was where Tony Finau finally put it all together, but the 50/1 we were backing him at in the US PGA is now just 35/1. No value there for me, and I’ll be happy enough for the big man if he silences the doubters here.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a European winner here. Winged Foot differs radically from your standard PGA Tour layout, with vision and creativity replacing point and shoot. I feel this suits the Europeans who have a few more strings to their bow than most of their American counterparts. He should have won this great title in 2016, but redemption may be only days away for SHANE LOWRY. He ticks a lot of the same boxes as Pat Reed (except he is liked!), in that his game around the greens is exemplary. His touch is superb, and he will execute shots that others simply won’t even see. He had a run out at the Safeway last week, and though playing the first two days in 3
under par he missed the cut. No harm in my opinion, and it has resulted in us getting a better than expected 100/1 here. Oakmont Country Club may indeed be the closest fit to this week’s venue that we have seen in recent US Open’s, and it’s here Shane should have shed his maiden major tag. It was all a bit much for him on the final day then, but he has since won an Open Championship, so I have no concerns about him baulking at the finish line this time around. Shane won’t let difficult conditions get to him, quite the opposite, and I envisage him plotting his way quite successfully around here. It’s only a month since an excellent 6th at the WGC St Jude, and this test will have been the most suitable since. He’s a big price for a class act, proven major winner, who won’t let the course beat him.
I have had less outright bets this year than in years past, and it’s a policy I will aim to continue with. There will be weeks though where there are circumstances which allow or demand more. This is one of them. Enhanced place terms and a view that a lot of this field can be ruled out due to the nature of the course, means I have two more to add, and a team of 6 in total.
If backing Scott was a slight surprise to regular readers, then putting LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN up will produce a few more querying looks. You can’t be stubborn with your views in gambling though, and everyone has their price. The price on the South African here is too big this time around. Winner of the Open at the ‘Home of Golf’, Louis has the unwanted accolade of having finished runner up in all 4 majors. One could suggest this means he hasn’t converted as well as he should, but it also confirms that Oosty is simply a different animal in the games biggest events. He just doesn’t seem turned on by run of the mill events, and though this is usually over factored into his price on Major wee, I don’t feel that is the case this week. Quite the opposite. Inconsistency has blighted much of 2020 for the selection, and though that isn’t really a worry for someone who has often produced his best when least expected, it can be no bad thing that in recent weeks he has been producing some very solid golf. This event has also seen him produce consistent high end play. Runner up in Chambers Bay in 2015, he has posted finishes of 23rd/23rd/16th/7th in his 4 outings since. Commentators have drooled for years over his elegant swing, and his driving has been impressive this past month. I repeatedly hark back to scrambling when looking for a likely winner here, and Louis led the field in that statistic in his last outing at the BMW. He won’t mind the bit of wind that is forecast, and the 80/90-1 on offer is worthy of support.
I did have a couple of bets at last week’s Safeway, and one of those was the last man in here, CHEZ REAVIE. He may seem an unlikely winner here, but at 150/1 with the extended places on offer, he certainly isn’t as fanciful as some priced up shorter. It seems accepted that everyone will miss their share of fairways here. It’s how you deal with it from there that will determine what sort of week one will have. What Reavie does bring to the table is not only more accuracy than most from that tee box, but also the ability to grind out a par when he does fire a wayward one. There was absolutely nothing wayward about his approach play on the back 9 on Sunday at Silverado. He had birdie putts from 3ft/13ft/9ft/5”/8ft/7ft/3ft/10ft in those last 9 holes. That is phenomenal stuff. Yes a much different test to what he will face at Winged Foot, but if he can remain that dialled in it doesn’t matter where he pitches up. Reavie’s stock has been firmly on the rise these past two years, and he will now feel he belongs in these top events. A tie for 3rd in last year’s renewal shows that he can more than handle US Open set ups, and arriving here off the back of that massive confidence booster at the Safeway, he can once again get involved here.
There were two more at even bigger prices that I felt warranted a few shekels, but 6 is where I stop for outright recommendations! I will however back both elsewhere.
Alternative Markets:
Top Lefty:
I’m going to get straight to this one, as to be honest I’m chomping at the bit about it!! It’s very rare I would have viewed the market as so wrong in 4 runner heat, but that is very much the case here. BRIAN HARMAN is put in as a 4/1 shot, and I can’t for the life of me see why. It’s the perfect storm here. 3 players I have absolutely no interest in, all of whom are vastly underpriced in the outright market, grouped with one who I feel should be a lot shorter all around. Robert MacIntyre makes his US Open debut here, and he’s in for a shock! Not in great form since the resumption, he is unlikely to get more than two days of experience. At 5/1, he takes up too much of the market. Now such is the way the mind of Phil Mickelson works, that it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the now ‘Senior’ deliberately avoided the fairways at Silverado last week. But that’s not really credible in my opinion. Phil believes contending the week before a major is the best possible warm up, and hitting only 12/56 fairways is not what anyone would want arriving here. If he hits a similar percentage this week, it will be a cricket score. It remains the one Major that he has not yet won, and that extra pressure seems to have adversely affected him in recent years. In his last 4 efforts, 48th has been the best he has managed. I don’t like his chances here.
Bubba Watson is the last player I expect to take to this test. Patience isn’t the first word that comes to mind when Bubba’s name comes up, and I can see him spitting the dummy fairly early. Indeed this is backed up by his recent record in his national Open. with 6 missed cuts from his last 8 attempts. I would have Bubba, Phil and HARMAN at around the same price in the outright market. Both have more potential upside when it comes to actually winning the event, but I would make Harman shorter than both and a 7/4 favourite, to top this section. He won’t sulk like Bubba, he will hit more fairways than Phil, and he will have far more nous than MacIntrye. Erin Hills wasn’t your typical US Open layout, but it did show that Harman has the mettle for these top events, and a runner up slot there will have him looking forward to the 2020 edition. A 78 in Round 3 at Shinnecock a year later removed any chance of a similar finish, but high scores were forgivable then as the greens were out of control. Control is something Harman has plenty of, and though he will lack for distance off the tee, the 2006 leaderboard was littered with ‘plotters’. 15th in SG: Around the Green, and 9th for Scrambling in the season just ended, it is this area of expertise which can see Harman get involved this week. One of the best on Tour putting from clutch range, he can save many pars that others won’t here this week. I had been tempted to play him in the outrights, but this market offers a much better opportunity. I will grab it with both hands, and have a larger than normal stake.
Top Continental European:
I am keen enough to take Jon Rahm on at a very short price here. Not that I don’t believe he can win, of course he can. I do think he is short enough in the outright market, but even worse value here, when it has to be a slight worry his impatience could get the better of him. Factored into 11/1, maybe, factored into 5/4? I think not. So, who to
take him on with. Sergio Garcia has been out of sorts of late, and is another hot head that could lose it at the traps here. Martin Kaymer has been once again hauling himself back into conversations for these events, with an excellent opening round at Harding Park a precursor for two excellent efforts in lower grade Euro Tour events. It was that Friday capitulation in the US PGA though that has me questioning whether he is truly ready for this test, at this level. Just yet. He’s short enough all told.
What delayed me pulling the trigger on VIKTOR HOVLAND here is his chipping. The hope is his recent hard work with Pete Cowen has brought him along enough to deal with this week’s demands. I feel the laser like accuracy of his irons will put him in better positions than most on these oh so tricky greens, and after a 12th place finish on tournament debut last year, he will be looking forward to another go at it. He’s a class act, and the smile he wears while plying his trade will keep him in better frame of mind than many of the opposition here. He isn’t getting the media attention of some of the new crop of superstars, and that can be a help here. Not much will be expected, but plenty may be delivered. In a market where very few can be fancied, 8/1 on the Norwegian appeals.
I feel the best bet in this section at the prices is ALEX NOREN. For all I am a big Martin Kaymer fan, I can’t see how Noren is 4 points bigger than him here. He has had a lull in form of his own, but 3rd in the 3M, 9th in the Barracuda, 22nd in the PGA, 8th at the Northern Trust and 40th in the BMW all suggest he is very much on his way back. Very adept at getting the ball up and down from unpromising greenside positions, the Swede has been somewhat overlooked in the markets here. Neat and tidy, with winning form on tight tracks such as this, and an excellent attitude there is plenty to like about his chances. If Rahm does flop, this section may not take much winning. 16/1 for him to do so is too big.
Top Irish Player:
Rory McIlroy was 9th last year at Pebble Beach, but that was quite a soft set up for this Championship. He had missed the cut the 3 previous years, and in each of those he arrived in better form than he does this time. Soft and difficult, Rory can be a tough nut to crack, but firm and difficult just hasn’t been his cup of tea down the years. He’s also different to most pro sports people at the top of their profession, he’s not single minded. And I feel golf will have been very much secondary to him the past couple of weeks. He’s been starting majors very poorly the last couple of years, and something similar here will probably finish off what has appeared a bit of a lack of interest of late. When you can take someone on in a market at 4/11 with those concerns, you should do so.
Especially when there is an alternative option who you feel has the game made for the challenge ahead, and the mindset to battle until the bitter end. The case has been made above for SHANE LOWRY, so I won’t rehash it. Simple fact is Rory is a very vulnerable favourite here, and Graeme McDowell strikes me as a part time golfer these days. As much as a grind like this would have suited in his pomp, it could put him to bed very early now. In the last 5 US Opens, Lowry would have topped this section 3 times, tied with Rory in 2015, and only lost once. That being last year, when he finished 4 shots behind him. All told the 3/1 is too big, and I would take anything from 9/4 upwards.
Top Korean:
I was very tempted to play Byeong Hun An here at 3/1, but have decided to let him run. Conscious not to be recommending too many bets for the one tournament, though he is overpriced here, I feel the other suggested bets offer that bit more juice.
Top 20 Finish:
It’s rare that I advise two players in this market. Both are fighting for the few same spots, but I am keen to have both onside here.
BRENDON TODD could easily have made it into the outright team. An absolute revelation these past 12 months, it’s testament to his mentality that he is on Tour at all. In his last 9 outings he has notched 5 Top 20’s. The best of these have generally come in the toughest of conditions. 8th at Olympia Fields, 15th at St Jude, 17th at Harding Park. Indeed only a Sunday 78 at a brutal Muirfield Village saw him slip to 22nd there. He has been the epitome of consistency of late, exactly what you want when having a bet in this market. He, like Reavie, isn’t the longest off the tee. But he will get the ball in play here more often than the majority of the field. 4th for Driving Accuracy, and 3rd for Scrambling are exactly what you want on your side this week, and with Todd’s Steady Eddie approach sure to be suited to the challenge ahead, I see the 7/2 on offer (4/1 available with 888/Unibet, but probably unattainable) as worthy of support.
When Par matters, MICHAEL THOMPSON springs to mind. One of the best grinders in the business, he is an underrated contender when conditions get very tough. He is another who I wouldn’t put anyone off having a few quid on the outright market (currently 630 on the machine) but I prefer to side with him at a general 9/1 (10/1 available with
the same two firms). Thompson thrives in difficult conditions, and as he said himself earlier in the year when he plays Michael Thompson golf “I don’t fear anyone”. Winged Foot sets up perfectly to bring out the best in him. In 3 appearances at this Championship, he finished 29th and won Lead Amateur in 2008, in very tough conditions at Torrey Pines. His next appearance was at the Olympic Club in 2012. Over par after 4 rounds was good enough for Webb Simpson to win this war of attrition, Thomspon was runner up. He struggled in 2013, his final appearance until now, but a player who started at the monster odds our man did in those 3 tournaments, he certainly out performed expectations. A winner again this term at the 3M Open, Thompson can more than handle himself in contention. And the more players whine about how tough this week will be, the more he will be lickig his lips. So many will beat themselves before they strike a ball here. More accurate than most off the tee, Thompson will happily plot his way around. 9/1 on that journey resulting in a Top 20 come Sunday evening is just too big.
Top Former Winner:
Again it is clear for all to see that Dustin Johnson is the man to beat here. But the top price of 7/4 just seems a shade short. Once more though I feel it is Rory McIlroy helping to make this market with his 7/2 taking up to high a percentage. For all I would love to see Tiger Woods notch his 16th Major here, I do wonder if such tough conditions will be ideal for a body that didn’t look in great shape on his most recent outing. Gary Woodland held some appeal at 14/1, but it is the 11/2 on WEBB SIMPSON which I couldn’t let go. As mentioned above, he is a former winner of the event, and with a score that could well do the business here this week. He had an out of character poor opening 36 holes at East Lake, but has generally been Mr Consistency in 2020. Every facet of Webbs game has been in top shape for a prolonged period of time, and he will be one of the few approaching this week with no worries about the difficulty level. I expect him to be thereabouts come Sunday evening, and with Justin Rose not at his best, and Jordan Spieth struggling badly there really doesn’t seem much to beat here. Yes DJ will be a tough nut to crack, but the 11/2 on Simpson represents the value call.
Those Who Missed The Cut!
For those that wanted a few extra arrows in the Outright Market, it was Thompson, Todd and Christiian Bezuidenhout that were the last ones off the list. The latter is the only one who hasn’t made his way onto the team sheet elsewhere. I looked at the Top South African market, but I do feel Louis Oost will be hard to topple there, and don’t want to be taking him on.
Matt Fitzpatrick was also very much of interest. A player clearly at his best when conditions are tough, this seems factored into his outright price. What I was more interested in was dutching himself and Tommy Fleetwood in the Top English Market at 6/1 and 9/2 respectively. As was the case with Ben An though, I just feel the bets that I have put up offer that bit more value, and I don’t want to over egg the pie.
That is all I have to offer. Hopefully you enjoyed the read, and that we have a few in contention come Sunday evening.
Recommendations:
Outright:
2pts ew Xander Schauffele 16/1 (⅕ 9 places, WH) *also 16s BV
1.5pts ew Patrick Reed 40/1 (⅕ 8 places, Betfred) *The 40/1 to 9 places with WH has just gone. Anything 30/1 and upwards is acceptable to enhanced places
1pt ew Adam Scott 40/1 (⅕ 9 places, WH) *40/1 available generally to 8 places
.5pt ew Louis Oosthuizen 75/1 (⅕ 8 places, 365) 90/1 available with 888/Unibet – 100 on machine & 20 Top 5
.4pt ew Shane Lowry 100/1 (⅕ 8 places, 365)
.3pt ew Chez Reavie 150/1 (⅕ 9 places, WH)
Top Lefty:
8pts Brian Harman 4/1 (365) *Anything from 5/2 upwards is acceptable. Plenty of 10/3-7/2 available Top Continental Euro:
2pts ew Viktor Hovland 8/1 (⅕ 4 places, 365) *7/1 and upwards acceptable
1.5pt ew Alex Noren 16/1 (⅕ 4 places, General)
Top Irish Player:
6pts Shane Lowry 3/1 (365/Skybet/Betway +other internet firms) *11/4 in PP acceptable Top 20 Finish:
6pts Brendon Todd 7/2 (BV) *4/1 available, General 10/3 acceptable. Check the exchange tomorrow when there will be more liquidity.
2.5pts Michael Thompson 9/1 (General)
Top Former Winner:
3pts ew Webb Simpson 11/2 (365/Betway) *9/2 acceptable –
It’s individual preference to play EW rather than win only here. I don’t see there being many with a realistic chance of being involved, and find it hard to see Webb out of the 3. I would make him 4/6 to notch a place.
*More bets than most weeks, and regular readers will notice that the staking plan is set to return more points per bet than would usually be the case. With Reed, I am simply very strong on him here. Elsewhere, I will often up stakes slightly for Major week. I put more work into them, and with this field being known for a couple of weeks and very few of itplaying last week, even extra time has gone into this one. I also really like the set up of the event, viewing it as one where very many players can be struck off straight away. Let’s hope I am on the right wavelength! Enjoy the viewing, it should be a cracker.
Running Totals 2020:
Staked: 381.3pts
Returned: 520.8pts
ROI: 36.59%
A rest week next week (we might need it!) and I will be back with the Sanderson Farms in a fortnight.
